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Overview

A resident who is economically self-sufficient has the ability to care for themselves and their family without relying on assistance for basic needs. The indicators in this sector measure income levels, poverty rates, and the ability to find employment, affordable housing and food.

The six Economic Self Sufficiency indicators are:

Income
Housing
Homelessness
Employment
Employers
Food Assistance

Current Trend

Forsyth Futures determines the trend of a measure based on data over a 10 year time period. If a trend is going in a desired direction then the trend for that measure is positive, if the trend is moving away from the desired direction it is a negative trend. If data for 10 years past is not available, the trend is based on available years.

Trend Status	Measure
	Housing
	Percent of Renter Households Burdened by Housing Costs
	Median Price-to-Income Ratio (2002 – 2010)
	Housing Affordability Index (2008 – 2010)
	Homelessness
	Number of Persons in Homeless Families
	Number of Single Adults who are Homeless
	Number of Unaccompanied Youth
	Number of Persons who are Chronically Homeless
	Number of Veterans who are Homeless
	Employment
	Unemployment Rate
	Number of New Businesses
	Number of Jobs Lost
- Positive Trend - Negative Trend

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Employment

Description

Understanding the state of employment provides a picture of the community’s economic health and vitality. The current measures used to track employment include the unemployment rate, number of new businesses, and number of jobs lost. The changes in employment that have occurred since 2008 are likely attributed to the recent recession.

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Key Findings

Unemployment Rate

From 2001 to 2010 the average annual unemployment rate has increased from 4.7 to 9.9 respectively.
The unemployment rate, in Forsyth County, was briefly above the natural rate in 2002 and 2003, and again in 2008. Since 2008, the unemployment rate has continued to rise.
From January to July of 2011 the average unemployment rate was 9.5, a slight decline from the 9.9 average in 2010.

Job Loss & Growth

In 2010 there were at least 1780 jobs lost in Forsyth County due to closings or layoffs. The average number of jobs lost, over the last ten years, is 1715 jobs a year. Job loss peaked in 2009, with at least 3674 jobs lost.
On average almost 2000 new businesses have opened in the last ten years. During 2010 there were 1724 businesses formed in Forsyth County.
Since 2008 companies in Forsyth County have reported 1321 job announcements to the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

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How we Measured

Trend Status

Trend Status	Measure
	Unemployment Rate
	Number of New Businesses
	Number of Jobs Lost
N/A	Number of Job Announcements Reported *
* While data on the number of job announcements reported is available, there are not enough years to make a statement on the trend.

Target Goals

While the natural unemployment rate is not a stated target for unemployment, given its common use as a standard for a healthy economy, it can serve as a potential goal for the unemployment rate. Target goals and dates are currently not available for the number of jobs lost and new businesses. However, examining how these measures would look with either a five percent or ten percent change can provide a picture of what is necessary to make progress.

Measure	Source of Target Goal
Unemployment Rate	Natural Rate of Unemployment
Number of New Businesses	5% and 10% Change
Number of Jobs Lost	5% and 10% Change
Number of Job Announcements Reported	N/A

Making Progress

Currently, the unemployment rate is increasing at about .58 a percent a year, if the unemployment rate would return to the natural rate by 2020 it would need to decrease by a half of a percent a year.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current 2010	Current Annual Change 2001 – 2010	Needed Annual Change	to get to	Target 2020
Unemployment Rate	9.9 _(Average)	0.58	-0.49		5.0

If the current trend in business creation continues Forsyth County will easily reach a five percent increase in new businesses by 2017. To see a ten percent increase in the number of new businesses per year

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current 2010	Current Annual Change 2001 – 2010	Needed Annual Change	to get to	5% Change 2020	Needed Annual Change	to get to	10% Change 2020
Number of Jobs Lost	1780	62.2	-8.9		1691	-17.8		1602
Number of New Businesses	1724	13.3	8.6		1810	17.2		1896

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Employment	Unemployment Rate	Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Demand Driven Data Delivery System. North Carolina Employment Security Commission.
	Number of New Businesses	New Corporations Search. North Carolina Corporations Division. North Carolina Secretary of State.
	Number of Jobs Lost	Business Closings. Demand Driven Data Delivery System. North Carolina Employment Security Commission.
	Number of Job Announcements Reported	North Carolina Department of Commerce Economic Development and Infrastructure Annual Reports. Personal Communication with Policy, Research & Strategic Planning Division. 6 September 2011

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Homelessness

Description

The issue of homelessness is related to several other indicators including affordable housing, job loss, poverty, mental health, and disabilities. An increase in the number of homeless persons in a community could indicate challenges in other areas. Due to the nature of homelessness, capturing a firm picture of persons who are homeless is difficult. To measure homelessness in Forsyth County practitioners use two main tools: the Point in Time count (PIT) and Carolina Homeless Information Network (CHIN). PIT provides an idea of how many persons are homeless on a given night, while CHIN provides an estimate of the number of homeless persons over a given year. For the purposes of this report data from the PIT counts are used.

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Key Findings

Over a 10 year period, PIT counts in Forsyth County reveal that on a given night in January homelessness in Forsyth County has fluctuated.
On average the number of persons who are homeless on the night of PIT count is 486. The highest number of persons, was 554 in January 2010, and the lowest was 418 in February 2003.
In January 2011, about 25 percent of persons who are homeless are in families, and about 75 percent are single adults.
The majority of persons who are homeless are sheltered, on average about 85 percent.
Since the PIT count started counting unaccompanied youth in 2007 the number has increased from zero to 11 at the January 2011 count.

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How we Measured

Trend Status

Trend Status	Measure
	Number of Persons in Homeless Families
	Number of Single Adults who are Homeless
	Number of Unaccompanied Youth
	Number of Persons who are Chronically Homeless
	Number of Veterans who are Homeless

Target Goals

In 2010 the United States Interagency Council on Homelessness (USICH) released Opening Doors – Federal Strategic Plan to Prevent and End Homelessness. This plan lays out a plan to prevent and end homelessness for persons who are chronically homeless and/or veterans who are homeless by 2015, and for children and families who are homeless by 2020.

Measure	Source of Target Goal
Number of Persons in Homeless Families	United States Interagency Council on Homelessness
Number of Single Adults who are Homeless	5% and 10% change
Number of Unaccompanied Youth who are Homeless	United States Interagency Council on Homelessness
Number of Persons who are Chronically Homeless	United States Interagency Council on Homelessness
Number of Veterans who are Homeless	United States Interagency Council on Homelessness

Making Progress

Current data suggests ending chronic homelessness will need the most the progress per year. On average 40 chronically homeless individuals would need to secure housing per year in order to end chronic homelessness by 2015.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current January 2011	Current Annual Change (Year Range)	Needed Annual Change	to get to	Target (Year)
Number of Persons in Homeless Families	128	4 _(2002-11)	-14		0 ₍₂₀₂₀₎
Number of Unaccompanied Youth who are Homeless	11	2.75 _(2007-11)	-1.2		0 ₍₂₀₂₀₎
Number of Persons who are Chronically Homeless	161	-5.5 _(2005-11)	-40.3		0 ₍₂₀₁₅₎
Number of Veterans who are Homeless	47	2.67 _(2008-11)	-11.8		0 ₍₂₀₁₅₎

The USICH did not set a timeline for ending all types of homelessness, but instead stated to set a path in this direction. While the current trend to reduce the number of single adults who are homeless is moving down in Forsyth County, to continue to make progress and set the path to ending homelessness between five and ten single adults need to secure housing per year.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current 2011	Current Annual Change 2002 – 2011	Needed Annual Change	to get to	5% Change 2015	Needed Annual Change	to get to	10% Change 2015
Number of Single Adults who are Homeless	385	-4.67	-4.81		366	-9.6		347

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Homelessness	Number of Persons in Homeless Families	January Point in Time Counts, Personal communication with Andrea Kurtz, Ten Year Plan to End Homelessness. 8 September 2011
	Number of Single Adults who are Homeless	January Point in Time Counts, Personal communication with Andrea Kurtz, Ten Year Plan to End Homelessness. 8 September 2011
	Number of Unaccompanied Youth who are Homeless	January Point in Time Counts, Personal communication with Andrea Kurtz, Ten Year Plan to End Homelessness. 8 September 2011
	Number of Persons who are Chronically Homeless	January Point in Time Counts, Personal communication with Andrea Kurtz, Ten Year Plan to End Homelessness. 8 September 2011
	Number of Veterans who are Homeless	January Point in Time Counts, Personal communication with Andrea Kurtz, Ten Year Plan to End Homelessness. 8 September 2011

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Employers

Description

Diversity of employment across several industries, and employers, is a good indicator of a community’s resilience to cyclical swings of particular industries. A diverse economy is much more capable of withstanding a decline of an industry or loss of a major employer.

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Key Findings

Largest Employers

Since 2005 the top three employers in Forsyth County are
1. Winston Salem/Forsyth County Schools
2. North Carolina Baptist Hospitals
3. Forsyth Memorial Hospital Inc.
As of the second quarter of 2005 Forsyth Memorial Hospital replaced R J Reynolds Tobacco Company as the number three employer.
In 2010 Hanesbrands, Inc replaced RJ Reynolds as the number five employer.

Largest Employers in Forsyth County

	Employers	Employers
Rank	1^st Quarter 2011	1^st Quarter 2010
1	Winston Salem Forsyth County Schools	Winston Salem Forsyth County Schools
2	North Carolina Baptist Hospitals	North Carolina Baptist Hospitals
3	Forsyth Memorial Hospital Inc	Forsyth Memorial Hospital Inc
4	Wake Forest University School Of Medicine	Wake Forest University School Of Medicine
5	Hanesbrands, Inc	Hanesbrands, Inc
6	City Of Winston-Salem	City Of Winston-Salem
7	U S Air Inc	R J Reynolds Tobacco Company
8	Wells Fargo Bank Na (A Corp)	Bayada Nurses Inc
9	R J Reynolds Tobacco Company	Wells Fargo Bank Na (A Corp)
10	Wake Forest University	U S Air Inc

Average Employment by Industry

Out of 14 industry types the five industries with the highest levels of average employment are;
1. Service-Providing Domain
2. Education and Health Services
3. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
4. Goods-Producing Domain
5. Professional and Business Services
Only three sectors increased their average employment between 2009 and 2010; Education and Health Services, Public Administration, and Information.
Between 2001 and 2010 most industries had a net loss of jobs, however five industries have seen an overall increase in average employment; Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality, Professional and Business Services, Public Administration, and the Service Providing Domain.

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How we Measured

Measures
Largest Employers
Average Employment by Industry

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Employers	Largest Employers	Quarterly Census Employment and Wages. Demand Driven Data Delivery System. North Carolina Employment Security Commission.
Employers	Average Employment by Industry	Quarterly Census Employment and Wages. Demand Driven Data Delivery System. North Carolina Employment Security Commission.

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Income

Description

The Income indicator examines the financial ability of Forsyth County residents to meet their basic needs and maintain a good quality of life. The measures included in the Income indicator are median income and percent of population below the poverty level. Income disparities among subgroups of the population are often correlated with educational attainment, asset accumulation, availability and use of civic amenities, and community involvement.

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Key Findings

Poverty Rate

According to the 2010 American Community Survey Estimates, about 16 percent of the population’s income was below the poverty level over a year period.
From 2003 to 2007 the percent of the population in poverty fluctuated between 13 and 15 percent. Before 2003 the poverty rate was about 10 percent, and since 2007 the rate has steadily increased to 16 percent.

Income

The estimated median income for families in Forsyth County was $57,964 in 2010. This is slightly higher than the median family income Guilford County, $54,255. However, it is lower than the median incomes of Durham, Mecklenburg, and Wake counties - $60,991, $61,464, and $77,275 respectively.
The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines low-income, very low-income, and extremely low-income based on an area’s median income.

Estimated Income Categories for Forsyth County in 2010
Low Income	80% of area median income	$29,000 - $46,500
Very Low-Income	50% of area median income	$17,000 - $28,999
Extremely Low-Income	30% of area median income	Below $17,000

In 2010, the estimated per capita income for residents of Forsyth County was $24,772.
The American Community Survey 2005 – 2009 average provides the most recent breakdown of per capita income by subgroup. The per capita income of white residents ($31,383) is almost two times higher than black or African Americans ($17,795) and three times higher than Hispanic or Latinos ($10,730).

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How we Measured

Measures
Poverty Rate
Median Family Income
Per Capita Income
Income Levels

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Income	Poverty Rate	DP03: Selected Economic Characteristics. 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year, US Census Bureau. B17001.& B17020A-I POVERTY STATUS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS BY SEX BY AGE2005 – 2009. American Community Survey 5-Year Estimations, US Census Bureau.
	Median Family Income	DP03: Selected Economic Characteristics. 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year, US Census Bureau.
	Per Capita Income	DP03: Selected Economic Characteristics. 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year, US Census Bureau.
	Income Levels	DP03: Selected Economic Characteristics. 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year, US Census Bureau.

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Housing

Description

Frequently measures related to housing are used as a sign for how the overall economy is faring. This section examines two types of housing measures; measures of the current state of the housing market and measures of housing affordability.

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Key Findings

Home Sales

Home sales in Forsyth County over the last 10 years peaked at 6060 in 2006, by 2010 home sales dropped to 3059. As of the end of August 2011 almost 1300 homes sold in Forsyth County, at an average sale price of $167,017.
Average and median sale prices of homes sold in Forsyth County peaked in 2007 at $183,318 and $145,000 respectively.
About 65 percent of occupied housing units are owner- occupied. The homeownership rate is consistent with rates in Guildford, Mecklenburg, and Wake counties, and higher than the rate in Durham County.

Foreclosures

In line with the rest of the country the number of foreclosed homes has increased since the start of the recession.
Before the recession, there were 834 homes foreclosed on in 2007. The year 2010 had the highest number of foreclosed homes, 1269. As of July 2011, almost 500 homes were in foreclosure. This approximately 300 less homes than as of July 2010.

Affordable Housing

In 2010 the median gross rent for Forsyth County was $682 a month. Almost 41 percent of occupied rental units cost the renter between $500 and $749 a month.
Each year HUD sets fair market rents for Forsyth County which provide a general standard of monthly rent for safe and affordable housing. The fair market rent for a two bedroom rental unit was $669 in 2010. On average about 50 percent of two bedroom rental units in Forsyth County rent for $500 to $749.
The percent of renters unable to afford a two bedroom home has increased from 41 in 2003 to 47 percent in 2011, a 15 percent increase over eight years.
A common method of measuring the affordability of homeownership is the median price-to-income ratio. This measurement examines the ratio of median sales prices to median household income. In Forsyth County, on average this ratio is 3.1, meaning median sale price of homes in the county is 3times more than the median household income. The national average for the median price-to-income ratio is 3.3.
The housing affordability index, created by the National Association of Realtors, is another way to measure housing affordability in the community. The housing affordability index looks at estimated monthly mortgage payments in relation to median family income to measure if a typical family could qualify for a loan on a typical home.*
In 2010 the housing affordability index for Forsyth County was 217.1, this means a family making median income has 217% of the income needed to qualify for a conventional home loan.**
So while many might meet have the income needed to qualify for a home loan other obstacles stand in the way to homeownership. Barriers to homeownership, other than affordability, include poor credit scores, and insufficient wealth to make a down payment.

* A typical family is defined as one earning the median income, and a typical home is defined as the median sales price of homes in Forsyth County.

** The equation for the housing affordability index was designed by the National Association of Realtors, and assumes a standard 30 year mortgage, a 20 percent down payment, and a 25 percent principal and interest payment amount of monthly income.

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How we Measured

Measures

The two measures of the housing market are number of home sales and number of foreclosures. This data is meant to provide a picture of housing in Forsyth County, and therefore does not have a demonstrated trend status.

Measures
Number of Home Sales
Number of Foreclosures

Trend Status

Forsyth Futures measures housing affordability by the renter cost-burden, median price-to-income ratio, and the housing affordability index. The trend status for the measure of the cost burden of renters indicates renters experienced a cost burden increase from 2003 – 2011. The trend for the affordability of homeownership is positive as both measures have moved in a positive direction.

Trend Status	Measure
	Percent of Renter Households Burdened by Housing Costs
	Median Price-to-Income Ratio (2002 – 2010)
	Housing Affordability Index (2008 – 2010)

Target Goals

Measure	Target Goal Source
Percent of Renter Households Burdened by Housing Costs	5% and 10% Change
Median Price-to-Income Ratio	Maintain Current Trend
Housing Affordability Index	Maintain Current Trend

Making Progress

Current measures of housing affordability suggest that while the cost of homes on the market is affordable, renters are still burdened by the cost of rental units. The percent of renter households burdened by their home has increased by about one percent a year since 2003. To start to make an impact on this number the trend would have to start decreasing between about a quarter and a half of a percent per year. Since both measures of homeownership affordability are well below the national averages targets were not set for these measures, the goal in these areas is to keep the current trend.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current	Current Annual Change	Needed Annual Change	to get to	5% Change 2020	Needed Annual Change	to get to	10% Change 2020
Percent of Renter Households Burdened by Housing Costs	47% ₍₂₀₁₁₎	0.85% _(2003-11)	-0.22%		45%	-0.56%		42%

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Housing	Number of Home Sales	Price Analysis Report. Multiple Listing Service. Report run by Dan Kornelis, Forsyth County Housing Department. 9/12/2011.
	Homeownership Rate	Tenure. 2002 – 2010 American Community Survey Single Year Estimates, US Census Bureau.
	Number of Foreclosures	Personal communication with Dan Kornelis, Forsyth County Housing Department. 9/12/2011.
	Percent of Renter Households Burdened by Housing Costs	Out of Reach Report. National Low Income Housing Coalition.
	Median Price-to-Income Ratio	B19013 Median Household Income. American Community Survey 1-Year Estimation 2002- 2010. Price Analysis Report. Multiple Listing Service. Report run by Dan Kornelis, Forsyth County Housing Department. 9/12/2011.
	Housing Affordability Index	B19013 Median Household Income. American Community Survey 1-Year Estimation 2002- 2010. DP03: Selected Economic Characteristics. 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year, US Census Bureau. Price Analysis Report. Multiple Listing Service. Report run by Dan Kornelis, Forsyth County Housing Department. 9/12/2011. Housing Affordability Index Formulas. Affordable Housing Real Estate Resource. National Association of Realtors.

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Food Assistance

Description

Participation in food assistance programs is an indicator of residents’ economic self-sufficiency, because acceptance into a program is based on thresholds of the Federal Poverty Level. However, it is significant to note that participation numbers do NOT fully capture the number of persons who might need food assistance, because participation is based on self-motivation or external guidance to complete the application for food assistance.

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Key Findings

Food and Nutrition Services (FNS)

Between January and September of 2011 the average number of Forsyth County residents receiving food and nutrition services was 52,032 persons per month.
The number of residents participating in the FHS program almost doubled from January 2005 to January 2011, increasing from 25,264 residents in 2005 to 50,125 in 2011.

Women, Infant, and Children (WIC)

On average from 2007-2010, approximately 11,241 women and children participated in WIC each year. From 2009 to 2010, a 3.71 decrease in the number of enrollees in the Special Supplemental Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) was evidenced.
Between 2009 and 2010 the number of participants who participated in WIC decreased by 3.7 percent. In previous years the number of participants was increasing.*

Free and Reduced Breakfast/Lunch Participation

The rate of Winston Salem Forsyth County Schools’ students that apply to participate in the free and reduced meals program has steadily increased since Academic Year (AY) 2003 – 2004, from 45 percent of Average Daily Membership to 53 percent.
In AY2010 – 2011, the average number of students who applied for free or reduced meals was 398 students per site. However, not all students who apply for or reduced meals actually participate in the program on a daily basis. Almost 40 percent of students who applied participate in the free or reduced lunch breakfast, and 71 percent participate in the free and reduced lunch program.
On average 38 percent of students participate in the free or reduced lunch program each day, and about 20 percent receive free or reduced breakfast.

* Available data is from 2007 - 2010

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How we Measured

Measures
Food and Nutrition Services (FNS) Caseload
Women, Infant and Children (WIC) Caseload
Free and Reduced Breakfast Participation Rate
Free and Reduced Lunch Participation Rate

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Food Assistance	Food and Nutrition Services (FNS) Caseload	“Number of Individuals on Active Cases by Month.” Food and Nutrition Services Program Statistics and Reviews. NC Division of Social Services. NC Department of Health and Human Services.
	Women, Infant, and Children (WIC) Caseload	“WIC Participation by County.” Personal Communication with Alice Lenihad, RD, MPH, LDN. Director Nutrition Services Branch. NC Division of Public Health. 23 March 2011
	Free and Reduced Breakfast Participation	“Record of Monthly Meal Participation.” Personal Communication with Velda Nelson. Child Nutrition. Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools. 16 September 2011.
	Free and Reduced Lunch Participation	“Record of Monthly Meal Participation.” Personal Communication with Velda Nelson. Child Nutrition. Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools. 16 September 2011.

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Educational Success

Overview

Achieving Educational Success means all residents have access to educational opportunities and can obtain educational benchmarks. The sector Educational Success includes indicators that measure levels of education, educational opportunities and benchmarks.

The five Educational Success indicators are:

Educational Attainment
Adult Basic Skills
Winston Salem Forsyth County Schools Annual Progress
Winston Salem Forsyth County Schools Graduation Rate
Children Ready for School

Current Trend

Trend Status	Measure
Winston Salem Forsyth County Schools Annual Progress
	Percent of schools that met expected growth
	Percent of 3rd through 8th grade students proficient in reading
	Percent of 3rd through 8th grade students proficient in mathematics
	Percent of 10th grade students proficient in reading
	Percent of 10th grade students proficient in mathematics
Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools High School Graduation
	4-year cohort graduation rate
	5-year cohort graduation rate
	Dropout rate
- Positive Trend - Negative Trend

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Educational Attainment

Description

The indicator, educational attainment, examines the highest level of education of persons in a community, and is related to the community’s economy and civic life. A knowledge-and research-based economy would require a population with a higher level of education, where as a service or manufacturing-based economy might require a population with more associate and technical degrees. A population with a low number of advanced degrees could indicate that persons graduating from local universities are not staying in the community.

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Key Findings

Educational Attainment

On average, between 2005 and 2009, about half of persons 25 and older had a high school diploma or equivalent as their highest level of education, and 31 percent of the population had a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Around seven percent of the population 25 and older has an associate’s degree.

Higher Education Enrollment

All universities, colleges, and community colleges in Forsyth County have increased or had stable enrollment numbers over the last ten years. The total number of students enrolled in local higher education institutions has increased from 12,514 in Academic Year (AY) 2000 – 2001 to 18,200 in AY2009 – 2010.
On average about 20 percent of students at local higher education institutions are Forsyth County residents.
In AY2009 – 2010 the institutions with the highest percent of local residents enrolled were Forsyth Technical Community College and Salem College, 75 percent and 40 percent respectively.

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How we Measured

Measures
Estimated percent of population (25 and older) whose highest level of education is a high school degree (or equivalent)
Estimated percent of population (25 and older) whose highest level of education is an associate’s degree
Estimated percent of population (25 and older) whose highest level of education is a bachelor’s degree or higher
Number of persons enrolled at local universities, colleges, and community colleges
Percent of students at local higher education institutions who are residents of Forsyth County

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Educational Attainment	Estimated percent of population (25 and older) whose highest level of education is a high school degree	Table B15002. and Tables C15002A-I Sex by Educational Attainment for the Population 25 Years and Over; 2005 – 2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimations, US Census Bureau.
	Estimated percent of population (25 and older) whose highest level of education is an associate's degree	Table B15002. and Tables C15002A-I Sex by Educational Attainment for the Population 25 Years and Over; 2005 – 2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimations, US Census Bureau.
	Estimated percent of population (25 and older) whose highest level of education is a bachelor's degree or higher	Table B15002. and Tables C15002A-I Sex by Educational Attainment for the Population 25 Years and Over; 2005 – 2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimations, US Census Bureau.
	Number of persons enrolled at local universities, colleges, and community colleges	Table 2. Degree Credit Headcount Enrollment in North Carolina Colleges and Universities by Institution, Residence Status, Attendance Status, and Gender; Statistical Abstract of Higher Education in North Carolina, Division of Institutional Research and Analysis.
	Percent of students at local higher education institutions who are residents of Forsyth County	Table 14. Geographic Origin of Undergraduate Degree Credit Headcount Enrollment in North Carolina Colleges and Universities by Institution; Statistical Abstract of Higher Education in North Carolina, Division of Institutional Research and Analysis.

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Adult Basic Skills

Description

Links between limited or non-literate adults and quality of life make it important to measure the rate of adult literacy, or percent of the population who is literate/non-literate. However, this is not possible because current, actual assessments of adult literacy in the total population are not conducted. Moreover, there are varying definitions of literacy and there is a self-identification requirement. One estimate of literacy in Forsyth County is adults who self-identify by seeking out basic skills courses and programs.

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Key Findings

Adult Basic Skills Students

On average, between AY2000 - 2001 and AY2009 – 2010, 5,751 adults have been enrolled in a program at Forsyth Technical Community College* (Forsyth Tech) designated as a basic skills program.
From AY1999 – 2000 to AY2008 – 2009 the number of students enrolled in the English as a Second Language program has remained stable, with only a 0.21 percent decrease from 2159 to 2015 students respectively.

* The majority of adults seeking basic skills courses at Forsyth Technical Community College reside in Forsyth County, however there may also be residents from neighboring counties who are within the catchment area of the College and are included in their counts.

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How we Measured

Measures
Total Literacy Program Enrollment
Progress of Basic Skills Students
English as a Second Language (ESL) Enrollment

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Adult Basic Literacy	Total Literacy Program Enrollment	Critical Success Factors for the North Carolina Community College, Planning & Research Section, North Carolina Community College System.
	Progress of Basic Skills Students	Critical Success Factors for the North Carolina Community College, Planning & Research Section, North Carolina Community College System.
	English as a Second Language (ESL) Enrollment	Critical Success Factors for the North Carolina Community College, Planning & Research Section, North Carolina Community College System.

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Annual Progress

Description

The North Carolina Department of Public Instruction tracks accountability of schools and school systems through The ABCs of Public Education accountability model. Through this accountability model, schools receive an ABC Status and are evaluated for Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP).

Measuring the growth of individual schools helps the community understand where the system is excelling and where more progress is needed.

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Key Findings

Academic Growth

For the AY2010 – 2011, 39 percent of Winston-Salem Forsyth County (WS/FC) Schools met high growth, 45 percent met expected growth only, and 21 percent did not meet expected growth.
From AY2006 – 2007 to AY2010 – 2011, the trend is an increase in WS/FC Schools that have met expected growth, from 56 percent of schools to 84 percent respectively. However, while the overall trend is positive between AY2009 – 2010 and AY2010 – 2011 the percent of schools meeting expected growth rates dropped from 93 to 84 percent.

Adequate Yearly Progress Status

In AY2010 – 11 only 20.0 percent of schools made adequate yearly progress (AYP); this is down from 54.3 percent in AY2009 – 10. As a whole WS/FC Schools met 64 out of 78 target goals (82 percent) needed to make AYP, and did not make AYP for the year.

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How we Measured

Trend Status

The trend status for Annual Progress examines whether the trend line for each measure is increasing or decreasing from AY2006 – 2007 to AY2010 – 2011. While data for previous years is available due to the use of new growth formulas starting in 2006, data from before 2006 is not used in comparisons. The trend for 3rd through 8th grade reading begins in AY2007 – 2008 due to a change in the exam that year.

Trend Status	Measure
	Percent of schools that met expected growth
	Percent of 3^rd through 8^th grade students proficient in reading
	Percent of 3^rd through 8^th grade students proficient in mathematics
	Percent of 10^th grade students proficient in reading
	Percent of 10^th grade students proficient in mathematics

Target Goals

In most cases target goals and years were set based on the Healthy North Carolina 2020 Objectives, or the federal Healthy People 2020 objectives if a state objective did not exist. In some cases a state or federal entity, related to the indicator, set a target goal and year. If so, this is the goal used. When there was not a set target goal or year the target is based on a 10 percent improvement by 2020.

Indicator	Measure	Target Goal Source
Annual Progress	Percent Proficient Reading Grades 3 through 8	No Child Left Behind
	Percent Proficient Math Grades 3 through 8	No Child Left Behind
	Percent Proficient Reading Grade 10	No Child Left Behind
	Percent Proficient Math Grade 10	No Child Left Behind
	Percent of Schools that Met Expected Growth	10% Increase

Making Progress

The current data suggests that reading levels for all students needs the most improvement. To reach the target goal of 100 percent proficiency by AY2013 – 2014 reading levels for grades 3 through 8 should have an annual percent increase of 10.6, and in grade 10 proficiency levels need to increase by at least 9.1 percent per year.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current AY2010-11	Current Annual Change AY2006-07 to 2010-11	Needed Annual Change	to get to	Target (Year)
Reading (Grades 3 through 8)	68.2%	-3.6	10.6		100% (AY2013-2014)
Mathematics (Grades 3 through 8)	82.4%	4.4	5.9		100% (AY2013-2014)
Reading (Grade 10)	72.6%	3.8	9.1		100% (AY2013-2014)
Mathematics (Grade 10)	80.4%	0.8	6.5		100% (AY2013-2014)
Schools that Meet Expected or High Growth	84%	7.0	0.93		92.4% (AY2019-2020)

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Annual Progress	Percent Proficient Reading Grades 3 through 8	Adequate Yearly Progress Reports, Accountability Services Division, NC Department of Public Instruction.
	Percent Proficient Math Grades 3 through 8	Adequate Yearly Progress Reports, Accountability Services Division, NC Department of Public Instruction.
	Percent Proficient Reading Grade 10	Adequate Yearly Progress Reports, Accountability Services Division, NC Department of Public Instruction.
	Percent Proficient Math Grade 10	Adequate Yearly Progress Reports, Accountability Services Division, NC Department of Public Instruction.
	Percent of Schools that Met Expected Growth	Forsyth County ABC Results (2002 - 2011), The ABCs of Public Education, North Carolina Department of Public Education.

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High School Graduation

Description

High school graduation rates are an indicator of the condition of the school environment and quality of school programs in a community. Graduation rates can also reflect a community’s support for and value of the educational process. Students that obtain a high school degree can lead to higher lifetime earnings, which is related to better health and quality of life. A higher graduation rate also indicates the strength of the community’s workforce.

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Key Findings

Cohort Graduation Rate

Since AY2005 – 2006 the 4-year cohort graduation rate for all students has increased from 73.7 to 78.8 percent for AY2010 – 2011, an increase of seven percent.
Graduation rates between subgroups vary, with Asian and white students having the highest 4 – year cohort graduation rates, on average 73.2 percent and 68.0 percent respectively. Over the last six years the average 4-year cohort graduation rate for black students is 56.3 percent and for Hispanic students is 41.4 percent.
Students with a limited English proficiency or with a disability have the lowest 4-year cohort graduation rates, 36.1 percent and 44.3 percent respectively.
The 5 – year cohort graduation rate for all students who started school in AY2006 – 2007 and graduated AY2010 – 2011 was 78 percent. This is only a 1.4 percent increase from the 77 percent graduation rate in AY2006-2007.

Dropout Rate

Since AY2000 – 2001 the dropout rate of 7^th through 12^th graders has decreased from 3.72 to 2.81 in AY2009 – 2010, a -0.24 rate change.
Over the last four years the most common reason for dropping out was attendance, almost half of the students who dropped out said it was for this reason.

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How we Measured

Trend Status

The trend status for high school graduates indicates that the trend line for graduation rates has increased from AY2005 – 2006 to AY2010 – 2011, and dropout rates have decreased from AY2000 – 2001 to AY2009 – 2010.

Trend Status	Measure
	4-year cohort graduation rate
	5-year cohort graduation rate
	Dropout rate

Target Goals

Measure	Source of Target Goal
4-Year Cohort Graduation Rates	NC Healthy 2020
5-Year Cohort Graduation Rates	WS/FCS Strategic Plan
Dropout Rate	10% Decrease

Making Progress

To reach the Healthy North Carolina 2020 objective of a 94.6 percent 4-year cohort graduation rate by AY2019 – 2020 the rate would need to increase by 1.76 each year. Since there are not established targets for the 5-year cohort graduation rate and the dropout rate to make progress in these measures a 10 percent change was set.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current (Year)	Current Annual Change (Year Range)	Needed Annual Change	to get to	Target AY2019-20
4-Year Cohort Graduation Rate	78.8% (AY2010-11)	1.02% (AY2005-06 to AY2010-11)	1.76%		94.6%
5-Year Cohort Graduation Rate	78.4% (AY2010-11)	0.28% (AY2005- 06 to AY2010-11)	1.66%		90.0% (Ay2017-18)
Dropout Rate	2.81 (AY2009-10)	- 0.10 (AY2000-01 to AY2009-10)	- 0.03		2.53

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
High School Graduation	4-Year Cohort Graduation Rates	Cohort Graduation Rates, The ABCs of Public Education, NC Department of Public Instruction.
	5-Year Cohort Graduation Rates	Cohort Graduation Rates, The ABCs of Public Education, NC Department of Public Instruction.
	Dropout Rate	Dropout Data Reports (2005 – 2006 through 2009 – 2010), Office of Dropout Prevention, Intervention & Recovery Services, Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools.

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Children Ready for School

Description

Children enter kindergarten with diverse experiences and levels of development. Some enter well ahead of developmental expectations and some are two or more years below. It is imperative that children arrive at Kindergarten with skills and knowledge that prepare them to engage with the curriculum. Long term academic success, in large part, depends upon school readiness.

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Key Findings

There were approximately 23,861 children under 5 years of age in Forsyth County in 2010.
Birth data from 2007-2010 suggest that the county can expect to have approximately 5,000 Kindergarten-age children through the 2012 -2013 academic year.
As of September, 2011, there were 4,276 Kindergarteners enrolled in the Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools (WS/FCS).
Literacy screening (DIBELS) data for 2009 through 2011, from the WS/FCS consistently indicate that approximately 50% of entering Kindergartners were placed in the “Some Risk” or “High Risk” in the area of early literacy.
Based on data from literacy screenings (DIBELS) for 2011 about 18 percent of Kindergarteners were considered high risk, and 33 percent considered some risk. In 2011, this means approximately 770 Kindergartners are considered “High Risk” and 1411 are considered “Some Risk.”
Applying the National Center for Educational Progress’ formulas to these figures suggest that most of the High Risk group and one third of Some Risk are not likely to “catch up” to typically developing peers.¹

¹ The Nation’s Report Card. National Center for Educational Progress (2009). Retrieved from Nations Report Card.

How we Measured

Trend Status

Measuring how ready children are for school is accomplished through the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) system. DIBELS has allowed educators to track how prepared Kindergarteners are for literacy curriculum since 2009.

Trend Status	Measure
	Percent of Entering Kindergarteners with “No Risk” in the area of Early Literacy

Target Goals

Measure	Target Goal Source
Percent of Entering Kindergarteners with “No Risk” in the area of Early Literacy	10% Increase

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Making Progress

Healthy People 2020 set an objective to increase the percent of children ready for school in the domain of learning, language, and cognitive development. To measure the progress of the indicator children ready for school a 10 percent increase in the percent of Kindergarteners with “No Risk” in early literacy was set. To reach this target the percent of Kindergartners not at risk would have to increase by approximately one half of a percent a year.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current 2011	Current Annual Change 2010 - 2011	Needed Annual Change	to get to	Target 2020
Percent of Children Entering Kindergarteners with “No Risk” in the area of Early Literacy	49%	-1.0%	0.54%		53.9%

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Children Ready for School	Number of children under five	“Profile of General Population and Housing Characteristics: 2010.” 2010 Demographic Profile SF. US Census Bureau.
	Approximate number of Kindergartners in AY2012 - 2013	“Live Birth Data.” North Carolina Health Data Query System. NC State Center for Health Statistics. Department of Health and Human Services.
	Number of Kindergartners enrolled in Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools AY2011 - 2012	“Grade, Race, Sex.” Data & Reports – Student Accounting. Financial & Business Services. NC Department of Public Instruction.
	Percent of Entering Kindergarteners at High or Some Risk in the Area of Early Literacy	Personal communication with Wayne A. Foster, PhD, Teacher Incentive Fund Project Director. Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools. 18 October 2011.

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Safety

Overview

A safe community is one where residents do not experience violence and other criminal activities in their daily lives. Measurements of safety include rates of crime and maltreatment.

The safety indicators are:

Criminal Activity
Youth Crime
Maltreatment
ISO Ratings

For the most recent data on safety please select the indicator below. Indicator data is constantly being updated and added to the website, if an indicator is currently being updated you can view previous data here. If you would like more information or analysis on measures of safety please submit a data request.

Current Trend

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Criminal Activity

Description

Crime is often an indication of the safety of a community and can influence a person’s perception of that community. The indicator Criminal Activity examines crime levels and trends over the past ten years in Forsyth County. Standard measures of criminal activity are Number of Index Crimes (which includes Violent and Property Crimes), and Index Crime Rate (per 100,000 people). Index crimes are counted by the number of incidents or victims, not by number of arrests. Violent Crimes include the number of Murders, Rapes, Robberies, and Aggravated Assaults, while Property Crimes include the number of, Burglaries, Larcenies, and Motor Vehicle Thefts.

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Key Findings

Crime Rates

Between 2001 and 2010 the Index Crime Rate has decreased by almost 23 percent, from 7077 incidents per 100,000 persons to 5461 per 100,000.
On average property crimes are almost nine times more common than violent crimes.
Aggravated assault is the most frequent type of violent crime, the average aggravated assault rate is approximately 400 incidents per 100,000 persons a year.
In the last ten years crime rates for all types of crime have decreased except for the burglary rate. From 2001 to 2010 the burglary rate increased by 1.5 percent.
The largest crime rate declines were for the murder rate, robbery rate, and motor vehicle theft rate. Each of these rates decreased by almost 50 percent since 2001.

How we Measured

Trend Status

From 2001 to 2010 overall index, property, and violent crime rates decreased in Forsyth County.

Trend Status	Measure
	Index Crime Rate* (per 100,000)
	Property Crime Rate (per 100,000)
	Violent Crime Rate (per 100,000)

Target Goals

Measure	Target Goal Source
Index Crime Rate	10% Improvement
Property Crime Rate	10% Improvement
Violent Crime Rate	10% Improvement

* Population numbers used for crime rates are reported by agency.

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Making Progress

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current 2011	Current Annual Change 2001 - 2010	Target	Reached by	Year
Index Crime Rate	5461	-179.6	4915		2014
Property Crime Rate	533	-23.5	480		2013
Violent Crime Rate	4928	-156.1	4435		2014

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Criminal Activity	Index Crime Rate	Figures 1 and 2: County Offenses Ten Year Trend, NC Department of Justice, 2010 Crime Statistics in Detailed Reports.
	Property Crime Rate	Figures 1 and 2: County Offenses Ten Year Trend, NC Department of Justice, 2010 Crime Statistics in Detailed Reports
	Violent Crime Rate	Figures 1 and 2: County Offenses Ten Year Trend, NC Department of Justice, 2010 Crime Statistics in Detailed Reports.

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Physical & Mental Health

Overview

A community that is physically and mentally health suggests that all residents have positive health outcomes, practice health promoting behaviors, and have access to health care.

Indicators found in this sector are:

Access to Health Care
Mental Health
Alcohol and Substance Abuse
Violent Deaths
Chronic Disease
Infant Health
Obesity
Sexually Transmitted Infections
Adolescent Pregnancy and Parenting

For the most recent data on health please select the indicator below. Indicator data is constantly being updated and added to the website, if an indicator is currently being updated you can view previous data here. If you would like more information or analysis on measures of health please submit a data request.

Current Trend

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Adolescent Parenting

Description

Adolescent parenting can have long term effects on the adolescent parents and their children. Adolescent moms are more likely to drop out of school, live in poverty, rely on financial assistance, and have long term health problems. Children of adolescent parents are more likely to suffer health problems, experience abuse and neglect, struggle academically, and also have children as adolescents.

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Key Findings

Adolescent Pregnancies

From 2000 to 2009 the number of pregnancies to girls ages 10 to 19 in Forsyth County has increased from 765 to 808.
While the number of adolescent pregnancies is increasing, Forsyth Futures estimates that the adolescent pregnancy rate has decreased from 38.8 per 1000 girls in 2000 to 33.8 per 1000 in 2009.*
In 2009, the rate of adolescent pregnancies in Forsyth County was at least twice as high as the adolescent pregnancy rates as the four comparable counties in North Carolina; Durham, Guilford, Mecklenburg, and Wake.
Half of adolescent girls who were pregnant in 2009 were white, while 48 percent were minority and about 2 percent of unknown race.

Adolescent Birth Rate

Around 73 percent of the pregnancies to adolescent girls in 2009 resulted in live births. This is about 589 babies born to adolescent girls ages 10 through 19.
Of the pregnancies that resulted in live births 56 percent were white and 44 percent were minority.

* Forsyth Futures calculates pregnancy rates based on Vintage 2009 Bridged-Race Population Estimates, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics. As a result, these rates differ from other common sources of adolescent pregnancy rates.

How we Measured

Measures

Measures
Adolescent Birth Rate, Ages 10 – 19 (per 1000)

Trend Status

From 2000 to 2009 the trend in the number of teen pregnancies was on the rise. However, the growth in population has actually led to a downward trend in the adolescent pregnancy rate.

Trend Status	Measure
	Number of Adolescent Pregnancies, Ages 10 – 19
	Adolescent Pregnancy Rate, Ages 10 – 19 (per 1000)

Target Goals

Target goals for adolescent pregnancy were set based on Healthy People 2020’s target setting method of a 10 percent decrease in the number of pregnancies and the adolescent pregnancy rate.

Measure	Target Goal Source
Number of Adolescent Pregnancies, Ages 10 - 19	10% Improvement
Adolescent Pregnancy Rate, Ages 10 - 19	10% Improvement

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Making Progress

On average, between 2000 and 2009, the number of adolescent pregnancies increased by almost five girls a year. To decrease the number of pregnancies by 10 percent in the year 2020 the prevention of at least 7 pregnancies a year is needed.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current2009	Current Annual Change2000 - 2009	Needed AnnualChange	to get to	Target2020
Number of Adolescent Pregnancies	808	5	-7		727
Adolescent Pregnancy Rate	33.8	-0.56	-0.30		30.4

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Adolescent Parenting	Adolescent Birth Rate, Ages 10 – 19 (per 1000)	“Pregnancies by County.” County Health Data Books 2007 - 2011, North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics.
	Number of Adolescent Pregnancies, Ages 10 - 19	“Pregnancies by County.” County Health Data Books 2007 - 2011, North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics, Population Estimates.”
	Adolescent Pregnancy Rate, Ages 10 – 19 (per 1000)	“Pregnancies by County.” County Health Data Books 2007 - 2011, North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics. Population Data – “Bridged-Race Population Estimates.” Produced by U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics. Center for Disease Control.

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Infant Health

Description

Infant Health is often a leading indication of children’s health overall, and the health of a community due to its association with factors such as maternal health, quality and access to medical care, socioeconomic conditions, and public health practices.* Measures included in Infant Health are the Infant Death Rate, Fetal Mortality Rate, and Low Birthweight Rate. The Infant Mortality Rate looks at the number of deaths of children under the age of one per 1000 live births, while the Fetal Death Rate is a measure of deaths before birth. An infant with a low birthweight is a liveborn baby who weighs under five pounds and eight ounces (2,500 grams) at birth.

* Source: MacDorman, M. F., Rowley, D. L., Iyasu, S., Kiely, J. L., Gardner, P. G., & Davis, M. S. (n.d.). Infant Mortality. Retrieved 07 26, 2011, from CDC's Public Health Surveillance for Women, Infants, and Children.

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Key Findings

Infant Mortality Rate

Over a ten year period the infant mortality rate has decreased from 10.5 deaths per 1000 live births in 2000 to 9.9 deaths per 1000 in 2009.
The highest number of infant deaths in the 10 year period occurred in 2008 when there were 61 infant deaths, or a rate of 12 deaths per 1,000 live births.
In 2009 the infant mortality rate in Forsyth County was higher than the rate for North Carolina as a whole; the rates were 9.9 and 7.9 respectively.
On average mortality for a minority infant is three times more likely than for a white infant.

Fetal Mortality Rate

From 2000 to 2009 the number of fetal deaths decreased by half, from 36 fetal deaths to 18.
The most progress was made between 2008 and 2009 when the number of deaths decreased by about 44 percent.
The fetal mortality rate has decreased from 7.8 in 2000 to 3.7 in 2009.
On average the fetal mortality rate of minorities is twice as high as the rate of whites.

Percent of Low Birthweights

Forsyth County has experienced a slight increase in percent of low birthweight babies between 2000 and 2009.
The percent of babies born under 2500 grams increased from 9.5 percent in 2000 to 9.9 percent in 2009, about a four percent increase.
Similar to the fetal mortality rate, minority babies are twice as likely to have a low birthweight as white babies.

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How we Measured

Trend Status

All measures of infant health have fluctuated between 2000 and 2009. The infant mortality and fetal mortality rates have both experienced an overall decrease from 2000 to 2009. However, rates of low birthweight have increased since 2000.

Trend Status	Measure
	Infant Mortality Rate
	Fetal Mortality Rate
	Percent of Low Birthweights

Target Goals

Target goals for measures of infant health were set using objectives from Healthy North Carolina 2020 Objectives and the federal Healthy People 2020.

Measure	Source of Target Goal
Infant Mortality Rate	Healthy North Carolina 2020
Fetal Mortality Rate	Healthy People 2020
Percent of Low Birthweights	Healthy People 2020

Making Progress

To make progress in infant health the infant mortality rate would need to continue to decrease, but at a higher annual change each year. The percent of babies born at a low birthweight needs to start decreasing by about 0.2 percent a year to make progress by 2020.

The most recent fetal mortality rate in Forsyth County was 3.7; about 1.5 times lower than the national target set by Healthy People 2020. Since Forsyth County is already below the target rate making progress would mean continuing the current annual decrease in the rate.

	WHERE WE ARE		WHERE WE COULD BE
Measure	Current 2009	Current Annual Change 2000 – 2009	Needed Annual Change	to get to	Target 2020
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births)	9.9	-0.06	-0.33		6.3
Percent of Low Birthweights	9.9%	0.04%	-0.19%		7.8%

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Infant Health	Infant Mortality Rate	“Infant Mortality Rate.” NC Selected Vital Statistics Volume 1 (2000 - 2009), State Center for Health Statistics, NC Department of Health and Human Services.
	Fetal Mortality Rate	“Fetal Mortality Rate.” NC Selected Vital Statistics Volume 1 (2000 - 2009), State Center for Health Statistics, NC Department of Health and Human Services.
	Percent of Low Birthweights	“Percent Low Birthweight.” NC Selected Vital Statistics Volume 1 (2000 - 2009), State Center for Health Statistics, NC Department of Health and Human Services.

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Sustainable Environment

Overview

The sustainable environment sector tracks indicators related to the state and health of the natural environment.

Indicators of a sustainable environment include:

Waste Generation and Recycling
Energy Production & Consumption
Land Use and the Built Environment
Air Quality
Clean & Plentiful Water
Protection of Open Space & Natural Habitats
Sustainable Transportation
Sustainable Food

For the most recent data on environmental sustainability please select the indicator below. Indicator data is constantly being updated and added to the website, if an indicator is currently being updated you can view previous data here. If you would like more information or analysis on measures of environmental sustainability please submit a data request.

Current Trend

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Public Transportation Ridership

Description

Public transportation is an alternative for residents who choose not to use other means of transportation, whether for economic reasons or personal preferences. Increasing the use of public transportation is a cost-effective way to reduce traffic congestion and commuting time, as well as exhaust pollution.

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Key Findings

Between 2007 and 2010 the average ridership on Winston-Salem Transportation Authority (WSTA) fixed routes was 2,784,326 riders a year.
During this time period WSTA experienced an average fixed ridership increase of 13 percent and a Trans-Aid ridership decrease of 7 percent.
From January to April of 2011, the WSTA fixed route and Trans-Aid ridership were at 1,066,436 and 45, 322, respectively.
Of the 13 PART routes that were available in 2009 and 2010 ridership increased by 2 percent, from 460,898 to 471,843 respectively. In 2009 the PART ridership on total PART ridership on 13 routes was 460,898. In 2010 two routes were added and the ridership increased to 474,024, respectively.
In November of 2010 two new routes were added, the total ridership for these routes in November and December 2010 was 2181.
In 2010 only four routes did not experience an increase in ridership.
The PART Winston-Salem Express route has the highest ridership of routes serving Forsyth County. Ridership numbers in 2010 are almost three times as high as in 2003, increasing from 26,241 to 100,070.

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How we Measured

There are two public transportation systems which operate in Forsyth County: Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation (PART) and the Winston-Salem Transit Authority (WSTA). However, it is difficult to capture the exact Forsyth County market share of the Authorities because of the regional (multi-county) nature of the systems.

Measure
Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation (PART) Ridership
Winston Salem Transit Authority (WSTA) Fixed Route Ridership
WSTA Trans-Aide Ridership

Indicator	Measures	Data Source
Public Transportation	Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation Ridership	“Route Ridership Updated 5/10/11.” Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation. Personal communication with Mark Kirstner, Project Manager/Senior Transportation Planner. 7 July 2011.
	Winston-Salem Transit Authority Fixed Route Ridership	Personal communication with Tomeka Cockerham, Operations Analyst. Winston-Salem Transportation Authority. 17 August 2011.
	Winston-Salem Transit Authority Trans-Aid Ridership	Personal communication with Tomeka Cockerham, Operations Analyst. Winston-Salem Transportation Authority. 17 August 2011.

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Community Engagement

Overview

Communities with a history of strong community engagement means residents have a sense of ownership and pride in where they live. Measurements of community engagement include participation rates in community events, usage of public resources, and levels of volunteering.

The Civic Engagement indicators are:

Cultural and Recreational Opportunities
Library Usage
Electoral Participation
Volunteerism
Neighborhood Support

For the most recent data on community engagement please select the indicator below. Indicator data is constantly being updated and added to the website, if an indicator is currently being updated you can view previous data here. If you would like more information or analysis on measures of community engagement please submit a data request.

Current Trend

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Electoral Participation

Description

The degree to which people exercise their right to vote and participate in elections measures the extent to which residents individually and collectively influence policies and legislation. High rates of voter registration and voter turnout are measures of residents’ engagement in the decision-making processes of the community. Another measure of this engagement is the extent to which local elected positions reflect the diversity of the population.

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Key Findings

Since 2004 the percent of the population registered to vote has remained consistent at around 86 percent.
However, the percent of registered voters actually voting in general elections is much lower than the number of registered voters. On average about 70 percent of the population, registered to vote, cast a ballot during the presidential election years of 2004 and 2008. In non-presidential year elections, 2006 and 2010, only an average of 41 percent of registered voters turned out to vote.
In 2011 the mayors of the eight municipalities in Forsyth County are white. Of the six North Carolina State legislators that represent Forsyth County four are white and two are black.

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How we Measured

Measure
Percent of Population that are Registered Voters
Percent of Registered Voters who Vote
Municipal Mayors by Race
NC State Legislators by Race

Indicator	Measure	Data Source
Electoral Participation	Percent of Population that are Registered Voters	“Election Results.” Forsyth County Board of Elections.
	Percent of Registered Voters who Vote	“Election Results.” Forsyth County Board of Elections.
	Municipal Mayors by Race	“Forsyth County Elected Officials.” Forsyth County Board of Elections.
	NC State Legislators by Race	“Forsyth County Elected Officials.” Forsyth County Board of Elections.

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